Forget Unicorns: Sudan’s Post-War Future Belongs to Private Equity

Sudan’s war is not yet over. Cities like El Fasher remain under daily bombardment, famine threatens millions, and the humanitarian toll continues to deepen. Yet even in the shadow of conflict, conversations are emerging within Sudanese policy and entrepreneurship circles about what comes next. As the country looks toward an eventual path out of war, some are asking whether Sudan can position itself as the next venture capital frontier market. The optimism is understandable, but the realities on the ground suggest that while the discussion on rebuilding is necessary, the model for investment is unlikely to follow a Silicon Valley playbook.

Sudan’s post-war future, if anything, looks more like a private equity story of reconstruction than a VC-driven rush for unicorns. Venture capital depends on a specific set of ingredients: reliable infrastructure, scalable digital platforms, a dense pipeline of skilled talent, and, most critically, clear exit pathways through IPOs or strategic acquisitions. None of these exist in Sudan today. The country’s power grid and logistics networks are shattered, its stock market is dormant, and its brightest minds have fled during years of conflict and economic collapse. Even the most ambitious tech startup would struggle to scale in an environment where basic connectivity and property rights are far from guaranteed.

This is not to say investment in Sudan is impossible. Far from it. In fact, the opportunities are vast, but they require a different lens. Private equity is uniquely suited to Sudan’s current stage of development because it thrives where others hesitate: in distressed, fragmented, high-risk environments where value can be unlocked through operational control rather than speculative growth.

Why VC Does Not Work in Sudan Right Now

VC investors are built to tolerate market risk, betting on whether a new app will attract users or whether customers will adopt a new fintech product. What they cannot absorb is existential risk: sudden currency collapse, asset seizures, or political instability. Sudan today is overwhelmed by these kinds of risks, which makes venture-style investing a poor fit.

The lack of a clear exit environment compounds the challenge. In East Africa, startups can dream of acquisitions by regional giants like Safaricom or MTN, or even global players like Stripe. In Nigeria or Egypt, IPOs are at least conceivable. In Sudan, there are no large domestic corporates positioned to acquire startups, and the Khartoum Stock Exchange is non-functional. Without exits, the VC model, which depends on a small number of big wins to make up for many failures, simply cannot operate.

Even when Sudanese startups have broken through, their stories underscore the structural weaknesses. When Bloom launched ( where I was a founding team member) , we carried a grand vision for East Africa, but Sudan’s instability and unclear policies cut short our trajectory. Tirhal, once considered a near unicorn in valuation terms, saw its momentum collapse as the country’s middle class Its core customer base fled or fell into economic hardship. That consumer class, which provides the appetite to spend and scale ventures, will take years to rebuild. Corporates like Sudatel and Zain Sudan, which in other markets might have evolved into active players in corporate venture capital, have yet to step into that space. Sudanese family businesses, while significant in trade and commodities, have not established family offices or seeded homegrown VC funds.

Instead, what exists of Sudan’s “startup ecosystem” is largely propped up by donor challenge funds and development grants. These provide essential lifelines but are not structured to build scalable, investment ready companies. They create activity, but not the conditions for venture capital to thrive.

Why Private Equity Fits the Moment

Private equity, on the other hand, is designed for economies like Sudan’s. It is less about speculative scaling and more about disciplined reconstruction. The real opportunities are not in the next ride hailing app but in retooling food factories, modernizing farms, rebuilding supply chains, and consolidating struggling logistics firms.

The PE playbook is clear: acquire distressed but essential businesses at a low cost, apply professional management and financial discipline, and roll them up into efficient market leaders. A fragmented food processing industry, for example, could be consolidated into a single national player capable of meeting domestic demand and eventually exporting. The same logic applies to construction materials, warehousing, or healthcare delivery.

To understand how this could work, consider a simple illustration. Imagine a mid sized sesame processing plant in Gedaref ( a state in Eastern Sudan known for its sesame) that today generates $2 million in annual revenues but is barely breaking even because of outdated machinery, poor management, and erratic supply chains. A PE firm could acquire this business for as little as $3 million, using $1 million of its own capital and $2 million in bank debt. With modest operational improvements say upgrading equipment, professionalizing management, and locking in grain supply contracts the mill’s operating profit (EBITDA) could rise from near zero to $1 million per year within three years. At that point, even at a conservative valuation multiple of 5x EBITDA, the business would be worth $5 million.

In other words, an initial $1 million equity investment could realistically double or triple in value within a few years, while also creating jobs, stabilizing food supply, and setting a precedent for broader sector consolidation. This is the essence of PE in post war economies: unlocking value not through speculative growth, but through operational discipline and long-term capital.

Private equity also brings the patience Sudan needs. With seven to ten year investment horizons, PE funds can ride out volatility in ways venture capital cannot. Their preference for control stakes ensures they can enforce governance reforms and operational improvements where local capacity is weak. And their focus on cash-flow-positive businesses is exactly what Sudan’s fragile economy requires: enterprises that can sustain themselves without endless injections of capital.

Why Sudan Is Not Iraq or Syria

Some might point to Iraq or Syria as analogues, countries that saw significant capital inflows after conflict. But Sudan’s situation is structurally different. Iraq and Syria had deeply entrenched business families with diversified industrial holdings. These conglomerates reinvested after conflict and provided local capital and know-how to jumpstart recovery.

Sudan has no such class. Its private wealth has historically been concentrated in narrow sectors like agriculture, commodities, or import-export, often entangled with the state. There is no entrenched group of diversified industrialists to lead reconstruction.

This vacuum creates both a challenge and an opportunity. For international private equity, Sudan is not just a market to deploy capital. It is a chance to play the role of institution builder. Instead of partnering with established conglomerates, investors may find themselves acquiring smaller family firms or distressed state-owned enterprises and transforming them into efficient, profitable champions. This is harder, but the upside is greater: the opportunity to shape the very foundations of a post-war economy.

A Frontier of a Different Kind

Sudan is unlikely to produce the next wave of billion dollar startups any time soon. But it can produce strong, cash-generating companies in essential sectors that stabilize the domestic economy and lay the groundwork for future growth. Private equity investors who step in now will not only capture value at distressed prices, they will also help rebuild a nation’s economic backbone.

This is not the VC dream of scaling apps and quick exits. It is the slower, harder work of turning around factories, restructuring supply chains, and consolidating fragmented industries. But it is exactly what Sudan needs.

The fundamentals make the opportunity even more compelling. Sudan has a population of more than 40 million, vast agricultural lands that remain underutilized, and a strategic geographic position that grants access both to the Red Sea and the heartland of Africa. When you think of Sudan, think of a marketplace that is not just producing for its own people, but also for its neighbors in East and Central Africa and for export markets across the Middle East.

For bold investors with the right mandate and the patience to navigate high geopolitical risk, Sudan offers a rare opportunity: to acquire core assets at deep discounts, apply hands-on operational improvements, and leave behind not just financial returns but a lasting legacy. In Sudan, private equity is not just about investing in companies, it is about rebuilding a country and positioning it as a regional production and trade hub.